Last year, India made a high-profile announcement that a massive reserve of lithium had been discovered in the mountainous region of Kashmir, positioning the country to become a major player in the global clean energy transition. The reserve, estimated at 5.9 million metric tons of lithium, would have placed India in possession of the fifth-largest lithium reserve in the world, triggering widespread optimism about the potential for economic growth and investment. However, nearly two years later, the reality has been far from the hype, as the government’s efforts to auction the lithium block have repeatedly failed, leaving villagers like Sunil Thakur disillusioned and frustrated.
Promises of prosperity, now stalled
Sunil Thakur, a 24-year-old from the village of Salal in Jammu and Kashmir, had hoped the discovery would transform his family’s fortunes. Before the announcement, Thakur worked at his family’s snack shop, frying samosas to make ends meet. But after learning of the lithium find, he and his family dreamed of selling their land, buying a new home and expanding their business.
However, despite the initial excitement, auction attempts in March 2023 failed to attract any bidders, and plans for extraction have been indefinitely suspended. PV Rao, a senior geologist, explained that the lithium reserves are not as significant as initially claimed, and that the resource is difficult to extract. According to experts, the actual lithium content in the region is far lower than expected, with only 0.02 million tonnes of lithium carbonate available, far less than what would be considered commercially viable.
Technical and geological issues
The initial excitement was partly driven by India’s newfound ambition to establish itself as a key player in the global battery supply chain, especially as lithium is a critical material for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. But experts such as Rao and Saurabh Priyadarshi argue that the data presented in the geological report was incomplete and misleading, making it difficult for investors to make informed decisions. Rao criticized the government’s report as “skeleton-type,” with limited information that did not meet international exploration standards. Several private companies that tested the lithium samples independently were reportedly not satisfied with the quantity or quality of the reserves, further dampening investor interest.
Geopolitical and environmental concerns
Even if the reserve were truly as valuable as originally advertised, the mining operation would still face significant challenges. Kashmir, where the lithium is located, is an area that has long been marred by political instability and conflict. The region’s proximity to the India-Pakistan border makes it a hotspot for violence, and a local militant group has threatened to attack any company attempting to mine the lithium, framing the extraction as “colonial exploitation.”
Beyond the security risks, lithium mining is a resource-intensive process that requires substantial water usage and can lead to environmental degradation, including water and soil pollution, affecting both local communities and the surrounding ecosystem. Given Salal’s proximity to the Chenab River, which is governed by a water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan, the potential for environmental harm becomes even more complex.
In addition, Seismic activity in the region adds another layer of complexity. The region is highly seismically active, making any industrial operation potentially risky and difficult to manage, as pointed out by Saurabh Priyadarshi, an expert on the region’s mining and environmental issues.
Uncertain future
With these obstacles in mind, the Indian government has decided to postpone further auction efforts and undertake additional exploration work to better understand the reserve’s potential. This process could take years, further delaying any real benefits from the lithium discovery.
For villagers like Sunil Thakur, the waiting game is becoming increasingly unbearable. Thakur expressed his frustration with the uncertainty, saying he feels as though his future is suspended, as if “the lever can be pulled any day.”
Meanwhile, his uncle, Karan Singh, who owns a small home on the mineral-rich land, has become more cautious about the potential upheaval. At 65, Singh values the natural beauty and peaceful environment of the village, and he now welcomes the delay. For Singh, the thought of leaving his home in the face of potential mining developments is a difficult one.
A cautionary tale
The story of Salal’s lithium reserve serves as a cautionary tale about the intersection of geopolitical uncertainty, mining complexities, and the economic ambitions of emerging markets. While the discovery of lithium might have seemed like a windfall for India and its citizens, the technical and environmental realities of lithium extraction — combined with the region’s unstable political landscape — are proving to be much more complicated than originally anticipated.
The Salal lithium saga highlights the risks of hastily promoted resource discoveries and the importance of comprehensive geological studies, accurate data, and careful consideration of the broader environmental and political context before launching major mining operations. It remains to be seen whether India will eventually realize the potential of this resource, or if it will become another missed opportunity.
